A potential government shutdown looms, and it's shaping up to be a doozy. Speaker Mike Johnson, a Republican, warns that this shutdown could be the longest in American history, and the implications are far-reaching.
On the 13th day of the shutdown, Johnson stood alone at the Capitol, unaware of the details surrounding the mass layoff of federal workers by the Trump administration. This unusual move is seen as an attempt to leverage the shutdown to reduce the size of the government. Vice President JD Vance has hinted at more "painful" cuts, even as employee unions fight back in court.
"We're heading towards a shutdown that could outlast any other in our nation's history," Johnson stated.
The shutdown has already halted routine government operations, closed iconic cultural institutions like the Smithsonian museums, and caused flight disruptions at airports. It's injecting uncertainty into an already fragile economy.
The House is currently out of session, with Johnson refusing to recall lawmakers to Washington. Meanwhile, the Senate, closed on Monday for a federal holiday, will return on Tuesday, but they're stuck in a stalemate with failed votes and Democrats refusing to budge on their health care demands.
One bright spot is that military personnel will be paid this week, thanks to President Trump, which removes a significant pressure point that might have pushed the parties to negotiate.
At its heart, this shutdown is a battle over health care policy, specifically the Affordable Care Act subsidies that are expiring for millions of Americans who rely on government aid to purchase health insurance through the Obamacare exchanges. Democrats want these subsidies extended, while Republicans argue it can wait.
With Congress and the White House at an impasse, some are eyeing the end of the month as the next potential deadline to reopen the government. That's when open enrollment begins for the health program in question, and Americans will face skyrocketing insurance premiums if Congress doesn't act. The Kaiser Family Foundation estimates monthly costs could double if Congress fails to renew the subsidies, which expire on December 31.
It's also when government workers on monthly pay schedules, including thousands of House aides, will miss their paychecks.
The health care debate has been a thorn in Congress's side since the Affordable Care Act became law under President Obama in 2010. The country experienced a 16-day shutdown during the Obama presidency when Republicans tried to repeal the Act in 2013. Trump attempted to "repeal and replace" the law during his first term in 2017, but that effort failed when Senator John McCain voted against it.
With a record 24 million now enrolled in Obamacare, Johnson said Republicans are unlikely to try that route again, acknowledging he still has "PTSD" from that failed attempt.
"Can we completely repeal and replace Obamacare? Many of us are skeptical now because the roots are so entrenched," Johnson admitted.
The Republican speaker insists his party has been open to discussing health care with Democrats this fall, before the subsidies expire. But first, Democrats must agree to reopen the government.
The longest shutdown during Trump's first term, over funding for the U.S.-Mexico border wall, ended in 2019 after 35 days.
The Trump administration is taking advantage of its power to fire workers and determine who gets paid. This means not just military troops but also other Trump priorities can continue to be funded thanks to various sources, including the billions in Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
The Pentagon tapped $8 billion in unused research and development funds to pay military personnel, but the Education Department is feeling the brunt of the shutdown, disrupting special education and after-school programs.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has stated that the Trump administration could use mandatory funding from the 2025 reconciliation act or other sources to continue operations at various agencies.
The CBO specifically mentioned the Department of Defense, the Department of the Treasury, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Office of Management and Budget as recipients of these funds.
"Some of the funds in DoD's direct appropriation under the 2025 reconciliation act could be used to pay active-duty personnel during a shutdown, thus reducing the need for excepted workers to wait for compensation," the CBO wrote.
